Libertad vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Libertad v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Libertad vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV1
4-2
HT 2-2
Libertad
EKV1
4-2
HT 2-1
Libertad
EKV2
1-1
HT 1-1
El Nacional
EKV2
Libertad 1-3 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
El Nacional got the better of Libertad 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Libertad had 60% of the ball to El Nacional's 40%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.69 to 2.58.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Libertad and 2.17 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Libertad vs El Nacional?
Libertad 1-3 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Libertad vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Libertad 43%, draw 26%, El Nacional 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.