Caen 2-2 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 5 Apr 2025

Caen
2-2 HT 0-1
Metz
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
55%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.4
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 29% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.08
1/2
7%
23.3
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
7%
8.98
X/2 EV+ ✗
27%
4.35
X/X
12%
5.13
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.33
2/X
6%
14.1
Value flag · X/2 at 4.35 — our 27% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
22%
-1.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
55%
Away Win
53%
+1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.3pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 57%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
0.99/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.94
+12% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +4%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 82%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
17.8 Crosses 20.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Metz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
318 Passes 400
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Metz Metz 1-0 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
13.02.2023 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR2
08.08.2022 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2
21.04.2018 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FR1
07.02.2018 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 0-0 Caen Caen FRK
26.08.2017 Caen Caen 1-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
2-2
AWAY Metz
1.08 xG 1.67
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
185 Passes 488
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Caen vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen and Metz couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Metz at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caen had 32% of the ball to Metz's 68%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.08 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Caen and 0.67 for Metz.

What was the final score of Caen vs Metz?

Caen 2-2 Metz in the France - Ligue 2 on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Caen 21%, draw 24%, Metz 55%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Metz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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