Lorient 5-0 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 5 Apr 2025

Lorient
5-0 HT 1-0
Pau
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Lorient vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.3
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.29
Over 2.5
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.53
2-3 Goals
36%
1.91
4-5 Goals
30%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.5
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
8%
21.3
X/1
16%
3.82
X/2
4%
19.3
X/X
7%
7.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
17%
22.45
2/2
10%
16.75
2/X
5%
25.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 17% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.7pp
19%
Draw
17%
+2.3pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.5pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lorient v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 14%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
2.29/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.76
+36% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
432 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
24.5 Crosses 15.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lorient vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Pau
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.19 xG 1.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
354 Passes 375
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.09.2024 Pau Pau 1-0 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient FR2

Lorient 5-0 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
5-0
AWAY Pau
61% Ball Possession 39%
0 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient cruised past Pau 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lorient as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Lorient had 61% of the ball to Pau's 39%.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Pau?

Lorient 5-0 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lorient win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Lorient 62%, draw 19%, Pau 19%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lorient), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lorient) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
5 Apr 2025
15:00 Caen vs Metz Analysis →
21:00 Troyes vs Red Star FC 93 Analysis →