JEF United 2-1 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 25% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JEF United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
2.03/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.38
+17% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
400 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.1 Crosses 16.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JEF United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
287 Passes 318
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.09.2024 JEF United JEF United 4-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
24.03.2024 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-0 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
08.10.2023 JEF United JEF United 1-1 HT 1-1 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
11.06.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 4-1 HT 1-1 JEF United JEF United JAP2
02.10.2022 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-1 HT 0-0 JEF United JEF United JAP2
29.05.2022 JEF United JEF United 2-1 HT 2-1 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JEF United
2-1
AWAY Mito HollyHock
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
194 Passes 479
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH JEF United vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

JEF United nicked a narrow win over Mito HollyHock 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had JEF United as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, JEF United had 33% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 67%, shots finished 15-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, JEF United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for JEF United and 1.00 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of JEF United vs Mito HollyHock?

JEF United 2-1 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JEF United vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a JEF United win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split JEF United 52%, draw 24%, Mito HollyHock 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (JEF United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (JEF United) ✓ Over 2.5
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