Arouca vs Famalicao Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Famalicao — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Famalicao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
4-1
HT 1-1
Famalicao
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
Arouca 1-2 Famalicao — Actual Match Statistics
Famalicao nicked a narrow win over Arouca 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Arouca had 59% of the ball to Famalicao's 41%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 3.27 to 0.95 — the balance of chances actually favoured Arouca.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Arouca and 0.67 for Famalicao.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Famalicao?
Arouca 1-2 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Famalicao?
Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arouca 34%, draw 25%, Famalicao 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.