Nafta 4-2 Mura — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

Nafta
4-2 HT 1-1
Mura
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
37%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
22%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
21.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nafta EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Mura EU Bookmakers 38%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +11%
1.85/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.10
+60% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nafta
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Mura
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Mura Mura 0-0 HT 0-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
28.09.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-0 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVN
20.07.2024 Mura Mura 1-0 HT 0-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
24.06.2020 Nafta Nafta 0-2 HT 0-0 Mura Mura SLVNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nafta
4-2
AWAY Mura
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nafta vs Mura
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nafta beat Mura 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Nafta found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nafta had 50% of the ball to Mura's 50%, shots finished 15-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mura led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Nafta and 0.75 for Mura.

What was the final score of Nafta vs Mura?

Nafta 4-2 Mura in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nafta vs Mura?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nafta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nafta 38%, draw 25%, Mura 36%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nafta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nafta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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