Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Zorya Luhansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒13:50 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vorskla Poltava EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Zorya Luhansk EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.44/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.10
+14% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vorskla Poltava
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Zorya Luhansk
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2024 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 2-0 HT 1-0 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
26.02.2024 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 1-0 HT 1-0 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
13.08.2023 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 1-2 HT 0-1 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk UKR
05.03.2023 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 2-3 HT 2-0 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk UKR
23.08.2022 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 3-1 HT 2-0 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
29.08.2021 Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vorskla Poltava
1-2
AWAY Zorya Luhansk
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zorya Luhansk edged past Vorskla Poltava 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vorskla Poltava at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zorya Luhansk led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vorskla Poltava and 2.00 for Zorya Luhansk.

What was the final score of Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?

Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Zorya Luhansk in the Ukraine - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vorskla Poltava vs Zorya Luhansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vorskla Poltava win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vorskla Poltava 43%, draw 29%, Zorya Luhansk 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vorskla Poltava) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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