Navalcarnero 2-3 Rayo Majadahonda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Majadahonda EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.69/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.72
-31% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +35%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-4D-1L
AWAY Rayo Majadahonda
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2025 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
02.02.2025 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
22.09.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda İS4
07.02.2021 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS3
08.11.2020 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Majadahonda Rayo Majadahonda İS3
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Rayo Majadahonda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Majadahonda squeezed past Navalcarnero 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (31% / 29% / 40%) promised a tight game; Rayo Majadahonda found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Rayo Majadahonda led the recent series with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Navalcarnero and 0.40 for Rayo Majadahonda.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Rayo Majadahonda?

Navalcarnero 2-3 Rayo Majadahonda in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Rayo Majadahonda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rayo Majadahonda win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 31%, draw 29%, Rayo Majadahonda 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Majadahonda) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Majadahonda) ✗ Under 2.5
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