Malaga 1-1 Merida AD — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.5pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Merida AD EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
0.99/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.35
-39% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Merida AD
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
4 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 4
10.12.2023 Merida AD Merida AD 1-2 HT 1-2 Malaga Malaga İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
1-1
AWAY Merida AD
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Merida AD
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga and Merida AD couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Malaga at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Malaga had 67% of the ball to Merida AD's 33%, shots finished 16-5.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Merida AD?

Malaga 1-1 Merida AD in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Merida AD?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Malaga 51%, draw 26%, Merida AD 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Malaga), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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