Melilla 1-0 San Fernando — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.66
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 34% vs market 33.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
5%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+4.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melilla EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY San Fernando EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
0.81/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.49
-19% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +95%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
277 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melilla
1W-0D-1L
AWAY San Fernando
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
26.11.2023 San Fernando San Fernando 4-1 HT 2-0 Melilla Melilla İS3
10.12.2017 San Fernando San Fernando 0-2 HT 0-0 Melilla Melilla İS3
POST-MATCH Melilla vs San Fernando
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melilla edged past San Fernando 1-0.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Melilla found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melilla and 2.00 for San Fernando.

What was the final score of Melilla vs San Fernando?

Melilla 1-0 San Fernando in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melilla vs San Fernando?

Before kick-off our model rated an San Fernando win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Melilla 32%, draw 28%, San Fernando 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (San Fernando) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Fernando) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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