Ituano 1-3 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 May 2024

Ituano
1-3 HT 1-1
Novorizontino
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Ituano vs Novorizontino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.54
Over 2.5
32%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.38
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
13%
5.08
6+ Goals
8%
30.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.38 — our 41% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+0.8pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.8pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.6pp
68%
Under 2.5
61%
+7.1pp
32%
Over 2.5
39%
-7.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.2pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ituano v Novorizontino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.01/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.66
-7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
20.8 Crosses 25.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1

Ituano vs Novorizontino Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 0.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 Passes 296
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
31.08.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
20.05.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-2 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
20.08.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-0 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
08.05.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-1 HT 1-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
27.01.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU

Ituano 1-3 Novorizontino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
1-3
AWAY Novorizontino
1.07 xG 2.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 12
201 Passes 297
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 35
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino saw off Ituano 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (31% / 34% / 35%) promised a tight game; Novorizontino found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ituano had 42% of the ball to Novorizontino's 58%, shots finished 7-24, expected goals 1.07 to 2.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Novorizontino led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ituano and 1.33 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Novorizontino?

Ituano 1-3 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated an Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Ituano 31%, draw 34%, Novorizontino 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novorizontino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
5 May 2024
00:00 Vila Nova vs Operario PR Analysis →
22:00 Brusque vs Goias Analysis →