Midtjylland 3-2 Brondby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
12%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.0
X/1
18%
5.26
X/2
8%
6.59
X/X
8%
4.65
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
20%
4.36
2/X
5%
12.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.0pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Brondby EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +24%
1.20/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.45
-1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 76%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
18.7 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Midtjylland
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Brondby
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.67 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
351 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.04.2024 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
18.02.2024 Brondby Brondby 1-0 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
20.08.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-1 HT 0-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
27.02.2023 Midtjylland Midtjylland 0-1 HT 0-0 Brondby Brondby DAN
29.08.2022 Brondby Brondby 0-2 HT 0-2 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
12.05.2022 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-2 HT 0-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
3-2
AWAY Brondby
2.93 xG 1.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
300 Passes 347
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 33
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs Brondby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland nicked a narrow win over Brondby 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Midtjylland as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Midtjylland had 47% of the ball to Brondby's 53%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 2.93 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brondby led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Midtjylland and 1.17 for Brondby.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs Brondby?

Midtjylland 3-2 Brondby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs Brondby?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 42%, draw 23%, Brondby 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Midtjylland), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Midtjylland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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