Hajduk Split 0-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.32
Draw
26%
4.81
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.23
Over 2.5
42%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
4.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
19%
2.89
6+ Goals
9%
8.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 32% vs market 17.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
71%
-19.5pp
26%
Draw
18%
+8.7pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
41%
+16.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
59%
-16.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.0pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.60/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.49
-9% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +30%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
23.4 Crosses 11.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
5W-1D-0L
AWAY NK Varazdin
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.90 xG 0.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
323 Passes 283
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 5-0 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIRK
24.02.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
12.11.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-1 HT 2-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.08.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
22.04.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
11.02.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-4 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
0-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.19 xG 1.04
61% Ball Possession 39%
6 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
331 Passes 188
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
11 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin squeezed past Hajduk Split 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 61% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 39%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.19 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Hajduk Split 0-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 52%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hajduk Split) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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