Başakşehir FK 4-1 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.7
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
11.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
15%
4.66
X/2
12%
7.84
X/X
13%
4.7
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
12%
5.53
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.48/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.63
+3% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
17.4 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.20 xG 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
403 Passes 314
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.01.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-3 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
21.01.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-3 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
08.08.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 4-0 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
30.04.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-3 HT 1-2 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.12.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
22.04.2021 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-1 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
4-1
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.62 xG 0.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
279 Passes 312
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK cruised past Kasımpaşa 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Başakşehir FK as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 48% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 52%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.62 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Başakşehir FK had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Başakşehir FK and 0.67 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa?

Başakşehir FK 4-1 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 45%, draw 26%, Kasımpaşa 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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