Penafiel 0-1 Torreense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 5 May 2025

📅05/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.29
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
44%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.9
Over 2.5
56%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+9.5pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.7pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Torreense EU Bookmakers 51%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.10/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.54
+19% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
239 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.6 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Torreense
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.35 xG 1.85
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 Passes 347
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2024 Torreense Torreense 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
16.05.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Torreense Torreense POR2
15.01.2024 Torreense Torreense 1-0 HT 1-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
21.05.2023 Torreense Torreense 5-1 HT 2-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
14.01.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Torreense Torreense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
0-1
AWAY Torreense
1.38 xG 2.69
42% Ball Possession 58%
4 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 2
170 Passes 378
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Torreense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Torreense edged past Penafiel 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Torreense as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 42% of the ball to Torreense's 58%, shots finished 4-20, expected goals 1.38 to 2.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Torreense's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Torreense led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Penafiel and 1.40 for Torreense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Torreense?

Penafiel 0-1 Torreense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 05/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Torreense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Torreense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 36%, draw 20%, Torreense 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Torreense) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Torreense) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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