Albirex Niigata 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 5 Jun 2024

📅05/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
14.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.92/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/0.86
-51% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +91%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
470 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
2W-3D-1L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
663 Passes 258
1 Yellow Cards 0
30.07.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
23.04.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
16.10.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
06.03.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
28.11.2020 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
02.09.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
2-1
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata nicked a narrow win over V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Albirex Niigata as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 58% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 42%, shots finished 16-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Albirex Niigata and 1.33 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Albirex Niigata 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - League Cup on 05/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 45%, draw 23%, V-Varen Nagasaki 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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