FC Tokyo 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 5 Jun 2024

📅05/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 27% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+2.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-6.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 57%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.16/0.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.42/0.65
-88% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +78% / +30%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tokyo
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.72 xG 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
324 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
28.10.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
22.04.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
30.07.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
12.03.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
27.11.2021 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tokyo
1-2
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima nicked a narrow win over FC Tokyo 2-1 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Tokyo had 64% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 36%, shots finished 11-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.17 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

FC Tokyo 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - League Cup on 05/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FC Tokyo 26%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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