Cerezo Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - League Cup, 5 Jun 2024

📅05/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.6
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.7pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-45% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
286 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Machida Zelvia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.68 xG 2.55
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
380 Passes 193
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2024 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-3
AWAY Machida Zelvia
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia got the better of Cerezo Osaka 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 44% of the ball to Machida Zelvia's 56%, shots finished 5-15.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Cerezo Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia in the Japan - League Cup on 05/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 33%, draw 26%, Machida Zelvia 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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