Machida Zelvia 2-1 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.63
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
12%
8.1
X/X
14%
4.38
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
14%
7.01
2/X
7%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
23%
+8.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 26%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
2.84/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.33
+91% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
370 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
16.0 Crosses 17.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
2-1
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
2.55 xG 1.68
38% Ball Possession 62%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
193 Passes 380
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia edged past Cerezo Osaka 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Machida Zelvia as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 38% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 62%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.55 to 1.68.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka?

Machida Zelvia 2-1 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 42%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Machida Zelvia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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