Albirex Niigata 3-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

Albirex Niigata
3-1 HT 0-1
Yokohama F. Marinos
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 28% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.42
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.61
X/2
9%
6.01
X/X
13%
5.0
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
21%
3.76
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Albirex Niigata v Yokohama F. Marinos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 38%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
0.96/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.76
-24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 81%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
21.0 Crosses 17.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3

Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.45 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
365 Passes 447
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
14.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-1 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
16.05.2018 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 2-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
04.04.2018 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-3 HT 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JLK
05.08.2017 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 0-2 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
26.04.2017 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 4-1 HT 1-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK

Albirex Niigata 3-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata
3-1
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
2.02 xG 1.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 9
326 Passes 368
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata got the better of Yokohama F. Marinos 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Albirex Niigata made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata had 47% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 53%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 2.02 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Albirex Niigata and 2.00 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Albirex Niigata 3-1 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata 37%, draw 28%, Yokohama F. Marinos 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata) ✗ Under 2.5
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