Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Shonan Bellmare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
3.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
18%
4.35
X/2
10%
7.63
X/X
9%
4.53
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
14%
5.81
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.1
Value flag · 2/X at 14.1 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Shonan Bellmare EU Bookmakers 29%
-13% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.49/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.29
-21% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.1 Crosses 18.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.51 xG 0.73
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
313 Passes 289
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.07.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 1-0 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
03.05.2023 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-2 HT 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
05.11.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-2 HT 0-1 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare JAP
19.02.2022 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 0-2 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
27.06.2021 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 2-4 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
19.05.2021 Shonan Bellmare Shonan Bellmare 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2-1
AWAY Shonan Bellmare
1.63 xG 1.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
362 Passes 304
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Shonan Bellmare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol squeezed past Shonan Bellmare 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kashiwa Reysol as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 54% of the ball to Shonan Bellmare's 46%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.63 to 1.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashiwa Reysol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.17 for Shonan Bellmare.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Shonan Bellmare?

Kashiwa Reysol 2-1 Shonan Bellmare in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Shonan Bellmare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 44%, draw 27%, Shonan Bellmare 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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