Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-3 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-3 HT 0-2
Kashima Antlers
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.17
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.55
X/1
18%
3.85
X/2
12%
9.39
X/X
11%
5.26
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
8%
7.39
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
16.25
Value flag · 2/X at 16.25 — our 9% vs market 3.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-8.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.9pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Kashima Antlers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.49/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.61
-11% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
24.7 Crosses 19.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.22 xG 1.09
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 Passes 356
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.07.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
01.04.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.08.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
07.05.2022 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
03.11.2021 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-4 HT 1-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
13.03.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-3 Kashima Antlers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-3
AWAY Kashima Antlers
1.06 xG 1.48
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
368 Passes 244
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 20
37 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers saw off Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 59% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 41%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.06 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.17 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-3 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 25%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5
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