Consadole Sapporo 1-0 Jubilo Iwata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.64
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
12%
4.66
X/2
9%
7.61
X/X
12%
5.01
2/1
5%
23.15
2/2
15%
5.27
2/X
5%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Consadole Sapporo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Jubilo Iwata EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.54/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.45
+23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.8 Crosses 20.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Consadole Sapporo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
484 Passes 282
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.06.2023 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 2-3 HT 1-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
25.03.2023 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 2-3 HT 0-0 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JLK
11.09.2022 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 4-0 HT 2-0 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
22.05.2022 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata 1-2 HT 1-1 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo JAP
23.11.2019 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 1-2 HT 0-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JAP
26.06.2019 Consadole Sapporo Consadole Sapporo 2-1 HT 2-1 Jubilo Iwata Jubilo Iwata JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Consadole Sapporo
1-0
AWAY Jubilo Iwata
1.69 xG 0.37
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
297 Passes 301
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Consadole Sapporo vs Jubilo Iwata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Consadole Sapporo nicked a narrow win over Jubilo Iwata 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Consadole Sapporo as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Consadole Sapporo had 51% of the ball to Jubilo Iwata's 49%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.69 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Consadole Sapporo's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Consadole Sapporo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Consadole Sapporo and 1.50 for Jubilo Iwata.

What was the final score of Consadole Sapporo vs Jubilo Iwata?

Consadole Sapporo 1-0 Jubilo Iwata in the Japan - J1 League on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Consadole Sapporo vs Jubilo Iwata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Consadole Sapporo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Consadole Sapporo 43%, draw 25%, Jubilo Iwata 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Consadole Sapporo) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Consadole Sapporo) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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