Corinthians 3-2 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Jul 2024

📅05/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.59
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.57 — our 35% vs market 32.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.44
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.35
X/1
18%
4.01
X/2
12%
8.92
X/X
16%
4.0
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
9%
7.54
2/X
7%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
52%
-9.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.3pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.43/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.89
+3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 80%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
23.0 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.04 xG 0.91
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
476 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
10.06.2018 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.05.2018 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BRK
26.04.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
19.08.2017 Corinthians Corinthians 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
21.05.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-2
AWAY Vitoria
0.67 xG 1.84
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 9
318 Passes 439
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians squeezed past Vitoria 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 44% of the ball to Vitoria's 56%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 0.67 to 1.84 — the balance of chances actually favoured Vitoria.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Corinthians and 0.67 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Vitoria?

Corinthians 3-2 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 42%, draw 30%, Vitoria 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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