Gremio 2-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Jul 2024

📅05/07/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.56
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.6
6+ Goals
7%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.65
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
13%
14.15
X/1
11%
5.98
X/2
12%
4.77
X/X
10%
3.98
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.39
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
0.77/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.26
-22% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.4 Crosses 19.2
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.75 xG 1.85
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
364 Passes 338
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
11.05.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-1 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
31.10.2021 Gremio Gremio 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
08.03.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
01.03.2021 Gremio Gremio 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
2-2
AWAY Palmeiras
2.20 xG 2.35
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
215 Passes 357
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 43
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio and Palmeiras shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gremio had 40% of the ball to Palmeiras's 60%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 2.20 to 2.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Palmeiras?

Gremio 2-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gremio 35%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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