Hammarby 1-0 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.5
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
6.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.6
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
18.35
X/1
16%
4.03
X/2
5%
16.1
X/X
10%
7.91
2/1
8%
20.0
2/2
7%
12.7
2/X
8%
21.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
69%
-10.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.6pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hammarby EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
1.96/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.49
-2% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +28%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
459 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
34.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
23.6 Crosses 14.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hammarby
1W-1D-4L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.32 xG 1.07
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
506 Passes 313
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-3 HT 0-1 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
05.05.2024 Hammarby Hammarby 1-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
04.11.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
29.05.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 0-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
31.07.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 1-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
29.05.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hammarby
1-0
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.42 xG 0.65
73% Ball Possession 27%
21 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 3
622 Passes 187
88% Pass Accuracy 70%
55 Box Touches 13
37 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hammarby squeezed past IFK Varnamo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hammarby as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hammarby had 73% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 27%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 1.42 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Varnamo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hammarby and 1.17 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo?

Hammarby 1-0 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hammarby win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Hammarby 58%, draw 25%, IFK Varnamo 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hammarby), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hammarby) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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