Smorgon 3-1 Gomel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
42%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.72
6+ Goals
9%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.1pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-7.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.0pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gomel EU Bookmakers 53%
+14% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
1.02/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.04
-6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
174 · 62% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Gomel
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 Gomel Gomel 2-1 HT 2-1 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
19.04.2024 Smorgon Smorgon 2-2 HT 1-1 Gomel Gomel BLR
22.10.2023 Smorgon Smorgon 0-3 HT 0-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
26.05.2023 Gomel Gomel 2-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
20.11.2021 Gomel Gomel 0-0 HT 0-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
26.06.2021 Smorgon Smorgon 1-2 HT 1-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs Gomel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smorgon saw off Gomel 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gomel at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gomel led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Smorgon and 1.83 for Gomel.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs Gomel?

Smorgon 3-1 Gomel in the Belarus - Premier League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs Gomel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gomel win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 27%, draw 31%, Gomel 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gomel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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