Libertad 2-1 Deportivo Cuenca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
33%
Away Win
37%
-4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -6%
1.17/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.14
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +34%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
23.1 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.05 xG 0.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
243 Passes 271
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 0-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
23.11.2024 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
28.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
12.08.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
04.03.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Cuenca
1.38 xG 1.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
275 Passes 192
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Deportivo Cuenca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad edged past Deportivo Cuenca 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 55% of the ball to Deportivo Cuenca's 45%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.38 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Libertad and 0.80 for Deportivo Cuenca.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Libertad 2-1 Deportivo Cuenca in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Deportivo Cuenca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Libertad 41%, draw 27%, Deportivo Cuenca 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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