Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.0pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Cuenca EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.34/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.26
+9% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 71%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
22.7 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.48 xG 1.21
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
274 Passes 280
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
12.08.2023 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
04.03.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Cuenca
1-1
AWAY Libertad
0.92 xG 0.63
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
222 Passes 163
71% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Cuenca and Libertad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Cuenca at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Deportivo Cuenca had 54% of the ball to Libertad's 46%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.92 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo Cuenca and 1.33 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad?

Deportivo Cuenca 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Cuenca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Cuenca 45%, draw 27%, Libertad 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Cuenca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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