Omiya Ardija 1-2 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.24
6+ Goals
13%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -1%
1.39/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.32
-10% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
391 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses 15.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Iwaki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
220 Passes 176
62% Pass Accuracy 58%
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2025 Iwaki Iwaki 2-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
26.03.2025 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 3-3 HT 1-1 Iwaki Iwaki JLK
24.06.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-5 HT 0-3 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
17.05.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 2-1 HT 1-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
1-2
AWAY Iwaki
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 12
106 Passes 139
56% Pass Accuracy 64%
10 Crosses 34
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iwaki nicked a narrow win over Omiya Ardija 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Omiya Ardija at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 44% of the ball to Iwaki's 56%, shots finished 10-24.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Iwaki led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Omiya Ardija and 3.00 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?

Omiya Ardija 1-2 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 41%, draw 27%, Iwaki 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Omiya Ardija), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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