V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Oita Trinita — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 27% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.7pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+8.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Oita Trinita EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +0%
2.25/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.25
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.3 Crosses 18.1
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Oita Trinita
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
316 Passes 239
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2025 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 1-2 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
06.10.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
06.05.2024 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 0-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 1-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
21.05.2023 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 1-1 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
01.10.2022 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 3-1 HT 3-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY Oita Trinita
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
317 Passes 195
75% Pass Accuracy 66%
12 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki squeezed past Oita Trinita 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 58% of the ball to Oita Trinita's 42%, shots finished 17-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.33 for Oita Trinita.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Oita Trinita in the Japan - J2 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 47%, draw 25%, Oita Trinita 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki)
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