Oita Trinita 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 18 May 2025

Oita Trinita
1-2 HT 1-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2025

Oita Trinita vs V-Varen Nagasaki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.29
6+ Goals
8%
22.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.53 — our 36% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oita Trinita v V-Varen Nagasaki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oita Trinita EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
0.99/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.43
-17% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -23%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
13.1 Crosses 17.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4

Oita Trinita vs V-Varen Nagasaki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oita Trinita
1W-3D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 285
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.10.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
06.05.2024 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 0-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 1-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
21.05.2023 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 1-1 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
01.10.2022 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 3-1 HT 3-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.03.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-1 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2

Oita Trinita 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oita Trinita
1-2
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
204 Passes 347
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oita Trinita vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki squeezed past Oita Trinita 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; V-Varen Nagasaki found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Oita Trinita had 40% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 60%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Oita Trinita and 2.00 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Oita Trinita vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Oita Trinita 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oita Trinita vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Oita Trinita 36%, draw 26%, V-Varen Nagasaki 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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