V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Oita Trinita — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 6 Oct 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki
4-1 HT 2-0
Oita Trinita
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Oita Trinita — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Oita Trinita EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
1.60/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.22
+17% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
400 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.0 Crosses –
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Oita Trinita
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.05.2024 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 0-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-2 HT 1-0 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
21.05.2023 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 1-1 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
01.10.2022 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 3-1 HT 3-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.03.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-1 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita JAP2
18.07.2015 Oita Trinita Oita Trinita 2-1 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Oita Trinita — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
4-1
AWAY Oita Trinita
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 7
285 Passes 274
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
5 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki swept aside Oita Trinita 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 50% of the ball to Oita Trinita's 50%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oita Trinita led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.50 for Oita Trinita.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita?

V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Oita Trinita in the Japan - J2 League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Oita Trinita?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 43%, draw 27%, Oita Trinita 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
6 Oct 2024
08:00 Montedio Yamagata vs Renofa Yamaguchi Analysis →
08:00 Roasso Kumamoto vs Tokushima Vortis Analysis →
08:00 Tochigi SC vs Ehime FC Analysis →
08:00 Mito HollyHock vs Shimizu S-Pulse Analysis →
08:00 Yokohama FC vs Kagoshima United Analysis →
09:00 Vegalta Sendai vs Blaublitz Akita Analysis →