Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.27
6+ Goals
9%
22.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.17/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.10
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.4 Crosses 16.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
319 Passes 320
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.10.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.05.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 HT 2-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
05.07.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
29.04.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
06.08.2022 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
25.05.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-0 HT 1-0 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Renofa Yamaguchi
1-0
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
111 Passes 343
51% Pass Accuracy 71%
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Renofa Yamaguchi vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renofa Yamaguchi nicked a narrow win over Montedio Yamagata 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 36% — and on the day Renofa Yamaguchi made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Renofa Yamaguchi had 32% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 68%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Renofa Yamaguchi and 0.83 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Renofa Yamaguchi vs Montedio Yamagata?

Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated an Montedio Yamagata win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Renofa Yamaguchi 35%, draw 28%, Montedio Yamagata 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montedio Yamagata) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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