Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 5 Jul 2025

Matsumoto Yamaga
1-3 HT 0-2
ThespaKusatsu Gunma
📅05/07/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J3 League – 2025

Matsumoto Yamaga vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-10.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.9pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Matsumoto Yamaga v ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.51/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/2.35
-1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
266 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.8 Crosses 19.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3

Matsumoto Yamaga vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
3W-0D-2L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
30.10.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
25.04.2021 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
02.12.2020 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2
19.07.2020 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
31.08.2014 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-3 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP2

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1-3
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 21
1 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 13
288 Passes 386
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ThespaKusatsu Gunma saw off Matsumoto Yamaga 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; ThespaKusatsu Gunma found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 44% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 56%, shots finished 9-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.60 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Matsumoto Yamaga 1-3 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J3 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 38%, draw 29%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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