Kagoshima United 1-0 Tochigi SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 5 Jul 2025

📅05/07/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.53/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.25/0.24
+9% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -77% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
196 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.5 Crosses 17.3
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kagoshima United
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Tochigi SC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
293 Passes 222
75% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2024 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 2-1 HT 0-1 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
21.04.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 2-1 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
22.09.2019 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 3-1 HT 2-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kagoshima United
1-0
AWAY Tochigi SC
39% Ball Possession 61%
3 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 5
162 Passes 329
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
3 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United edged past Tochigi SC 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Kagoshima United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kagoshima United had 39% of the ball to Tochigi SC's 61%, shots finished 3-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tochigi SC led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kagoshima United and 2.00 for Tochigi SC.

What was the final score of Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?

Kagoshima United 1-0 Tochigi SC in the Japan - J3 League on 05/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kagoshima United vs Tochigi SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kagoshima United 46%, draw 28%, Tochigi SC 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kagoshima United), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✓ Under 2.5
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