Tochigi SC 2-1 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 22 Sep 2024

📅22/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.36
6+ Goals
10%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tochigi SC EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -20%
1.35/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.69
+3% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -29%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
287 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 15.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tochigi SC
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Kagoshima United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.04.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 2-1 HT 1-0 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC JAP2
22.09.2019 Tochigi SC Tochigi SC 3-1 HT 2-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tochigi SC
2-1
AWAY Kagoshima United
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
222 Passes 293
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tochigi SC edged past Kagoshima United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tochigi SC as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tochigi SC had 45% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 55%, shots finished 8-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tochigi SC and 1.50 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United?

Tochigi SC 2-1 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J2 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tochigi SC vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tochigi SC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tochigi SC 43%, draw 28%, Kagoshima United 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tochigi SC), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tochigi SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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