V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 22 Sep 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki
2-0 HT 0-0
ThespaKusatsu Gunma
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
Japan - J2 League – 2024

V-Varen Nagasaki vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.18
Over 2.5
45%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
3.0
6+ Goals
11%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.25 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-10.4pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.9pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
42%
+12.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
58%
-12.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.7pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
2.09/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.36
+2% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
8.0 Crosses 21.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.1

V-Varen Nagasaki vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
5W-0D-1L
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.04.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
09.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
08.04.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
18.06.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
30.03.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-3 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.11.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2-0
AWAY ThespaKusatsu Gunma
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 354
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki got the better of ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 50% of the ball to ThespaKusatsu Gunma's 50%, shots finished 18-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for ThespaKusatsu Gunma.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma in the Japan - J2 League on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs ThespaKusatsu Gunma?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 50%, draw 28%, ThespaKusatsu Gunma 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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