ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Apr 2024

ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-2 HT 1-2
V-Varen Nagasaki
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2024

ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.13
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.08
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
20%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ThespaKusatsu Gunma v V-Varen Nagasaki — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +26%
0.73/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.74
-28% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
279 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.1

ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1W-0D-5L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.09.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
08.04.2023 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
18.06.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 2-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
30.03.2022 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-3 HT 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.11.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
10.04.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-2
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki squeezed past ThespaKusatsu Gunma 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 48% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 52%, shots finished 7-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 2.17 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-2 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 26%, draw 27%, V-Varen Nagasaki 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP2 More Japan - J2 League
27 Apr 2024
08:00 Vegalta Sendai vs JEF United Analysis →
08:00 Mito HollyHock vs Fujieda MYFC Analysis →
08:55 Ehime FC vs Ventforet Kofu Analysis →