Mito HollyHock 2-3 Fujieda MYFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.07
2-3 Goals
47%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.81
6+ Goals
7%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fujieda MYFC EU Bookmakers 27%
-14% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +11%
1.23/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.76
-21% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mito HollyHock
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Fujieda MYFC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Fujieda MYFC Fujieda MYFC 1-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
16.04.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-4 HT 0-2 Fujieda MYFC Fujieda MYFC JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mito HollyHock
2-3
AWAY Fujieda MYFC
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mito HollyHock vs Fujieda MYFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fujieda MYFC nicked a narrow win over Mito HollyHock 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mito HollyHock at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mito HollyHock had 43% of the ball to Fujieda MYFC's 57%, shots finished 19-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fujieda MYFC led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mito HollyHock and 2.50 for Fujieda MYFC.

What was the final score of Mito HollyHock vs Fujieda MYFC?

Mito HollyHock 2-3 Fujieda MYFC in the Japan - J2 League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mito HollyHock vs Fujieda MYFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mito HollyHock win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mito HollyHock 45%, draw 28%, Fujieda MYFC 27%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mito HollyHock) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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