St. Johnstone 1-2 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 5 Aug 2024

📅05/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
42%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 29% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
26%
+2.4pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.9pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-7.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 53%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
1.05/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.95
-24% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
233 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 71%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
19.7 Crosses 25.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Johnstone
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aberdeen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.89 xG 1.64
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
196 Passes 326
62% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
28.02.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
24.01.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-1 HT 0-0 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
08.10.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
01.04.2023 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
07.01.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-0 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Johnstone
1-2
AWAY Aberdeen
0.81 xG 1.79
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 7
239 Passes 240
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 25
32 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Johnstone vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen edged past St. Johnstone 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aberdeen as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, St. Johnstone had 51% of the ball to Aberdeen's 49%, shots finished 15-21, expected goals 0.81 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for St. Johnstone and 0.83 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of St. Johnstone vs Aberdeen?

St. Johnstone 1-2 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 05/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Johnstone vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split St. Johnstone 28%, draw 31%, Aberdeen 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aberdeen) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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