Sturm Graz 4-1 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 5 Sep 2024

📅05/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.89
Over 2.5
56%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.43
No
51%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
31%
+12.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
69%
-12.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
66%
-16.3pp
51%
BTTS No
34%
+16.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 24%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.34/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.92
+18% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
29.10.2019 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AUK
06.07.2019 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 3-3 HT 2-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz HAZ
20.01.2015 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV HAZ
23.06.2014 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-1 HT 2-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV HAZ
28.04.2012 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AVU
04.03.2012 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
4-1
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz swept aside Kapfenberger SV 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 57% of the ball to Kapfenberger SV's 43%, shots finished 19-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 0.83 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Kapfenberger SV?

Sturm Graz 4-1 Kapfenberger SV in the Friendlies on 05/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 51%, draw 24%, Kapfenberger SV 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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