Winchester City 5-2 Swindon Supermarine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.21
Over
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
62%
1.53
No
38%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
17%
2-3
41%
4-5
29%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-2.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
61%
+1.1pp
38%
BTTS No
39%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winchester City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Supermarine EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
190 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winchester City
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Swindon Supermarine
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
06.02.2024 Winchester City Winchester City 2-2 HT 0-1 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine İNGNLP
04.03.2023 Winchester City Winchester City 1-6 HT 1-3 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine İNGNLP
29.10.2022 Winchester City Winchester City 0-5 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine FAK
22.10.2022 Swindon Supermarine Swindon Supermarine 1-2 HT 0-0 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Winchester City vs Swindon Supermarine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winchester City cruised past Swindon Supermarine 5-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Winchester City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Swindon Supermarine led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Winchester City and 3.50 for Swindon Supermarine.

What was the final score of Winchester City vs Swindon Supermarine?

Winchester City 5-2 Swindon Supermarine in the England - FA Cup on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winchester City vs Swindon Supermarine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Winchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Winchester City 41%, draw 27%, Swindon Supermarine 32%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Winchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Winchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNFAT More England - FA Cup
5 Oct 2024
00:00 Belper Town vs Leicester Road Analysis →
17:00 Guiseley vs Bamber Bridge Analysis →
17:00 Lewes vs Bracknell Town Analysis →
17:00 Frome Town vs Havant & Waterlooville Analysis →
17:00 Gloucester City vs Wimborne Town Analysis →
17:00 Folkestone Invicta vs Ascot United Analysis →