Gefle 2-1 IK Brage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 5 Oct 2024

Gefle
2-1 HT 2-1
IK Brage
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Sweden - Superettan – 2024

Gefle vs IK Brage Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.87
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
47%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
12%
9.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.63
1/2
7%
21.45
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
6%
9.3
X/2
9%
4.19
X/X
9%
5.57
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.2
2/X EV+ ✗
14%
14.0
Value flag · 2/X at 14.0 — our 14% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+2.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.8pp
47%
Away Win
54%
-7.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gefle v IK Brage — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gefle EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Brage EU Bookmakers 58%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
1.39/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.00
+26% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -79% / -3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 473 · 84%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.3 Yellow Cards –

Gefle vs IK Brage Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gefle
2W-2D-2L
AWAY IK Brage
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.06.2024 IK Brage IK Brage 2-2 HT 1-1 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
05.08.2023 Gefle Gefle 2-0 HT 0-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇ2
19.05.2023 IK Brage IK Brage 1-1 HT 0-1 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
20.08.2018 Gefle Gefle 0-2 HT 0-1 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇ2
09.04.2018 IK Brage IK Brage 4-2 HT 2-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ2
09.06.2004 Gefle Gefle 2-0 HT 0-0 IK Brage IK Brage İSÇ2

Gefle 2-1 IK Brage — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gefle
2-1
AWAY IK Brage
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gefle vs IK Brage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gefle squeezed past IK Brage 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was IK Brage at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gefle had 41% of the ball to IK Brage's 59%, shots finished 6-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gefle and 1.50 for IK Brage.

What was the final score of Gefle vs IK Brage?

Gefle 2-1 IK Brage in the Sweden - Superettan on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gefle vs IK Brage?

Before kick-off our model rated an IK Brage win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gefle 25%, draw 28%, IK Brage 47%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IK Brage) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IK Brage) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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