05/10/2024
·
14:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-2
2nd Score
3-1
Hogaborgs BK vs Nosaby IF Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
30%
Draw
25%
32%
Away Win
28%
47%
Under 2.5
41%
53%
Over 2.5
59%
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
46%
BTTS No
39%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hogaborgs BK v Nosaby IF — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Hogaborgs BK
EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nosaby IF
EU Bookmakers 32%
-59% /
-59%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+1% /
-7%
0.00/1.47
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
1.47/1.95
-100%
/
-3%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-2%
/
-5%
49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
5
295 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
370 · 81%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
3.1
Hogaborgs BK vs Nosaby IF Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Hogaborgs BK
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Nosaby IF
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
2.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Hogaborgs BK vs Nosaby IF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Hogaborgs BK cruised past Nosaby IF 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.
Our pre-match split (38% / 30% / 32%) promised a tight game; Hogaborgs BK found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
What was the final score of Hogaborgs BK vs Nosaby IF?
Hogaborgs BK 3-0 Nosaby IF in the Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hogaborgs BK vs Nosaby IF?
Before kick-off our model rated a Hogaborgs BK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hogaborgs BK 38%, draw 30%, Nosaby IF 32%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hogaborgs BK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Hogaborgs BK)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
İSÇ4
More Sweden - 2nd Division Östra Götaland
5 Oct 2024