Mjallby 2-1 Vasteras SK FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 28% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.52
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
20%
4.45
X/2
9%
7.83
X/X
10%
5.16
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
9%
5.55
2/X
6%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mjallby EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasteras SK FK EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.86/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.43
+24% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
246 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 82%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
24.6 Crosses 21.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mjallby
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vasteras SK FK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.55
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
320 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 0
25.04.2024 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK 2-1 HT 1-1 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ
25.02.2024 Mjallby Mjallby 2-0 HT 0-0 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK İSÇK
19.10.2019 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK 2-2 HT 1-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ2
13.04.2019 Mjallby Mjallby 2-1 HT 1-0 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK İSÇ2
14.08.2005 Mjallby Mjallby 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK İSÇ2
01.05.2005 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Mjallby Mjallby İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mjallby
2-1
AWAY Vasteras SK FK
2.37 xG 0.62
66% Ball Possession 34%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
450 Passes 178
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
33 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mjallby vs Vasteras SK FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mjallby nicked a narrow win over Vasteras SK FK 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mjallby as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mjallby had 66% of the ball to Vasteras SK FK's 34%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.37 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mjallby's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mjallby had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Mjallby and 1.00 for Vasteras SK FK.

What was the final score of Mjallby vs Vasteras SK FK?

Mjallby 2-1 Vasteras SK FK in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mjallby vs Vasteras SK FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mjallby win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mjallby 47%, draw 26%, Vasteras SK FK 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mjallby) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mjallby) ✗ Under 2.5
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