Ponferradina 2-1 Celta Vigo II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
34%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.14
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
48%
-11.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.5pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+10.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo II EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +6%
1.18/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.96
-21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +48% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.0 Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Celta Vigo II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II 0-0 HT 0-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
27.08.2023 Ponferradina Ponferradina 2-1 HT 2-0 Celta Vigo II Celta Vigo II İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
2-1
AWAY Celta Vigo II
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 26
6 Shots on Target 12
1 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs Celta Vigo II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina edged past Celta Vigo II 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Ponferradina made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ponferradina had 36% of the ball to Celta Vigo II's 64%, shots finished 8-26.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ponferradina had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ponferradina and 0.50 for Celta Vigo II.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs Celta Vigo II?

Ponferradina 2-1 Celta Vigo II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs Celta Vigo II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 37%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo II 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponferradina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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