Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atalanta v Genoa — Team-Based Signals
Atalanta vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Genoa
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Genoa
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Atalanta
İTA
3-4
HT 0-3
Atalanta
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Genoa
İTA
Atalanta 5-1 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics
Atalanta ran out comfortable winners over Genoa 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Atalanta had 63% of the ball to Genoa's 37%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 3.65 to 0.73.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Genoa.
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 5-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 54%, draw 23%, Genoa 23%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.