Atalanta 5-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.18
Over Pick
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.32
2-3
38%
1.88
4-5
24%
2.98
6+
14%
8.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.72
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.2
X/1
16%
3.62
X/2
9%
14.05
X/X
9%
6.59
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
7%
10.85
2/X
6%
18.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.7pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 18%
-9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.89/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.46
+15% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
21.1 Crosses 13.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Genoa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.57 xG 0.92
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
469 Passes 306
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.02.2024 Genoa Genoa 1-4 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
22.10.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
13.03.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
21.12.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
15.05.2021 Genoa Genoa 3-4 HT 0-3 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
5-1
AWAY Genoa
3.65 xG 0.73
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
518 Passes 277
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta ran out comfortable winners over Genoa 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 63% of the ball to Genoa's 37%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 3.65 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Genoa?

Atalanta 5-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 54%, draw 23%, Genoa 23%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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