Udinese 1-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.6
Over
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.56
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
22%
4.62
6+
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.7
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.25
X/2
15%
5.9
X/X
12%
3.71
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
12%
4.37
2/X
7%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.9pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Udinese EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +17%
1.13/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.31
-13% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +70%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
16.1 Crosses 15.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Udinese
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lecce
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.55 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.05.2024 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
23.10.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
28.04.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 0-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
23.12.2022 Udinese Udinese 2-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce HAZ
04.11.2022 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
29.07.2020 Udinese Udinese 1-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Udinese
1-0
AWAY Lecce
0.87 xG 0.51
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
351 Passes 270
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Udinese vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Udinese edged past Lecce 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Udinese found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Udinese had 56% of the ball to Lecce's 44%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.87 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Udinese and 0.83 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Lecce?

Udinese 1-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Udinese vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Udinese win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Udinese 39%, draw 26%, Lecce 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Udinese), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Udinese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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