Genoa 1-4 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
4.41
6+ Goals
8%
23.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.0
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
11%
7.36
X/2
14%
4.18
X/X
9%
4.03
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
19%
2.7
2/X
8%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+8.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
40%
Away Win
46%
-6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 50%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.00/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/0.94
-7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +35%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 81%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
18.8 Crosses 18.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Atalanta
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
276 Passes 484
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
10 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 2-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
13.03.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
21.12.2021 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
15.05.2021 Genoa Genoa 3-4 HT 0-3 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.01.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
02.02.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 2-2 HT 2-2 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
1-4
AWAY Atalanta
0.77 xG 2.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 4
417 Passes 321
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta cruised past Genoa 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Atalanta made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genoa had 55% of the ball to Atalanta's 45%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.77 to 2.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Genoa and 1.33 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Atalanta?

Genoa 1-4 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Genoa 33%, draw 26%, Atalanta 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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